{"id":9746,"date":"2026-06-28T22:27:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T14:27:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/a-physically-informed-world-model-for-probabilistic-earth-observation-forecastin\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T22:27:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T14:27:20","slug":"a-physically-informed-world-model-for-probabilistic-earth-observation-forecastin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/a-physically-informed-world-model-for-probabilistic-earth-observation-forecastin\/","title":{"rendered":"EO-WM\uff1a\u628a\u885b\u661f\u5f71\u50cf\u9810\u5831\u8b8a\u6210\u5929\u6c23\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6a21\u578b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Intro.jpg\" alt=\"EO-WM overview\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u5408\u7269\u7406\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u5f71\u7247\u64f4\u6563\u4e16\u754c\u6a21\u578b\uff08EO-WM\uff09\uff0c\u5c08\u9580\u7528\u65bc\u591a\u5149\u8b5c\u885b\u661f\u5f71\u50cf\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u6574\u9ad4\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u628a\u5730\u7403\u89c0\u6e2c\uff08Earth Observation, EO\uff09\u9810\u5831\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4f4d\u70ba\u300c\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u89c0\u5bdf\u3001\u5929\u6c23\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5efa\u6a21\u300d\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u5728\u7a00\u758f\u885b\u661f\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u8207\u672a\u4f86\u6c23\u8c61\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\u9810\u6e2c\u5730\u8868\u52d5\u614b\uff0c\u4e26\u652f\u63f4\u707d\u5bb3\u76e3\u6e2c\u3001\u4f5c\u7269\u7522\u91cf\u9810\u4f30\u53ca\u690d\u88ab\u8b8a\u5316\u8ffd\u8e64\u7b49\u4e0b\u6e38\u61c9\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u904e\u53bb\u7684 EO \u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u70ba\u5169\u985e\uff1a\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5f0f\u6a21\u578b\u628a\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u58d3\u7e2e\u6210\u55ae\u4e00\u672a\u4f86\u5f71\u50cf\uff0c\u64f4\u6563\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u5247\u5f80\u5f80\u628a\u5929\u6c23\u8b8a\u91cf\u7576\u6210\u7c60\u7d71\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f38\u5165\u3002\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u90fd\u96e3\u4ee5\u6b63\u78ba\u53cd\u6620\u300c\u6c23\u8c61\u689d\u4ef6\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u8b8a\u5730\u8868\u72c0\u614b\u300d\u9019\u500b\u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u73fe\u6709 benchmark \u591a\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u50cf\u7d20\u91cd\u5efa\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u8861\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6539\u8b8a\u5929\u6c23\u689d\u4ef6\u6642\u662f\u5426\u6703\u7522\u751f\u65b9\u5411\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u97ff\u61c9\u3002EO-WM \u70ba\u4e86\u89e3\u6c7a\u9019\u500b\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u500b EO \u5c08\u5c6c VAE \u628a\u7a00\u758f\u885b\u661f\u89c0\u6e2c\u7de8\u78bc\u70ba\u6f5b\u5728\u5f71\u7247 token\uff0c\u518d\u7528\u64f4\u6563 Transformer\uff08diffusion transformer\uff09\u7d93\u7531\u7368\u7acb\u689d\u4ef6\u8def\u5f91\u540c\u6642\u8655\u7406\u4e09\u7a2e\u4fe1\u865f\uff1a\u6c23\u5019\u57fa\u7dda\uff08climatological baseline\uff09\u3001\u5929\u6c23\u7570\u5e38\uff08weather anomaly\uff09\u8207\u7d2f\u7a4d\u7269\u7406\u58d3\u529b\uff08cumulative stress\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u6301\u7e8c\u5c07\u7a7a\u9593\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u91cd\u65b0\u6ce8\u5165\u5f71\u7247 token \u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8a55\u6e2c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u500b\u4ee5 EarthNet2021 \u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u8a3a\u65b7\u5f0f benchmark\uff1aExtreme Summer Benchmark \u8861\u91cf\u6975\u7aef\u71b1\u6d6a\u8207\u4e7e\u65f1\u4e0b\u690d\u88ab\u9000\u5316\u7684\u56b4\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u611f\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5f15\u5165 TN-MAE \u8207 Drop Amplitude Error\uff1bSeasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark \u5247\u8861\u91cf\u7576\u5929\u6c23\u689d\u4ef6\u6539\u8b8a\u6642\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u5411\u8207\u5e45\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u4ee5 Divergence Reproduction Ratio\u3001Directional Hit Rate \u8207 Paired Divergence Correlation \u70ba\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5831\u544a\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a NDVI \u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u8aa4\u5dee\u76f8\u5c0d\u6e1b\u5c11 5.63%\uff0c\u65b9\u5411\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u76f8\u5c0d\u63d0\u5347 7.80%\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5728\u50cf\u7d20\u7d1a ENS\u3001P-MAE\u3001N-MAE \u7b49\u6307\u6a19\u4e0a\u4ecd\u5177\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u500b\u9805\u76ee\u5c0d\u9059\u611f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3001\u8fb2\u696d\u76e3\u6e2c\u5718\u968a\u53ca\u6c23\u5019\u98a8\u96aa\u5206\u6790\u5718\u968a\u7279\u5225\u6709\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u540c\u6642\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a21\u578b\u8207\u57fa\u6e96\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u8b93\u5916\u754c\u53ef\u5728\u7d71\u4e00\u7684\u8a55\u6e2c\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u97ff\u61c9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5f9e\u5de5\u7a0b\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u67b6\u69cb\u8a2d\u8a08\u5f37\u8abf\u7269\u7406\u5206\u96e2\u689d\u4ef6\u8207\u7a7a\u9593\u91cd\u6ce8\u5165\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u55ae\u7d14\u5806\u758a\u53c3\u6578\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u53d6\u6368\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u63d0\u9ad8\u6975\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91cb\u6027\u3002\u9700\u7559\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d GitHub \u5009\u5eab\u4e3b\u8981\u91cb\u51fa benchmark CSV \u8207 Earthformer \u53c3\u8003\u8a55\u6e2c\u8173\u672c\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u6b0a\u91cd\u8207\u5b8c\u6574\u8a13\u7df4\u6d41\u7a0b\u5c6c\u65bc\u914d\u5957\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u91cd\u73fe\u5b8c\u6574\u7d50\u679c\u4ecd\u9700\u81ea\u884c\u6e96\u5099 EarthNet2021 \u7684 extreme \u8207 seasonal \u5207\u5206\u8cc7\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u91cd\u9ede\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u7fa9 EO \u9810\u5831\u7bc4\u5f0f<\/strong>\uff1a\u628a\u885b\u661f\u5f71\u50cf\u9810\u6e2c\u8996\u70ba\u5929\u6c23\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7d14\u7cb9\u7684\u5f71\u50cf\u91cd\u5efa\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7269\u7406\u5206\u96e2\u689d\u4ef6<\/strong>\uff1a\u5929\u6c23\u4fe1\u865f\u88ab\u62c6\u5206\u70ba\u57fa\u7dda\u3001\u7570\u5e38\u8207\u7d2f\u7a4d\u58d3\u529b\u4e09\u689d\u7368\u7acb\u689d\u4ef6\u8def\u5f91\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u8a3a\u65b7\u5f0f benchmark<\/strong>\uff1aExtreme Summer \u8207 Seasonal Matched-Pair \u5169\u500b\u57fa\u6e96\u5c08\u9580\u6aa2\u9a57\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5929\u6c23\u6539\u8b8a\u4e0b\u7684\u97ff\u61c9\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u53ef\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u654f\u611f\u5ea6<\/strong>\uff1aNDVI \u4e0b\u964d\u8aa4\u5dee\u964d\u4f4e 5.63%\uff0c\u65b9\u5411\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u63d0\u5347 7.80%\uff0c\u6a19\u6e96\u6307\u6a19\u4ecd\u5177\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u76ee\u524d\u91cb\u51fa\u5167\u5bb9<\/strong>\uff1a\u4ee5 benchmark CSV \u8207\u8a55\u6e2c\u8173\u672c\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u8a13\u7df4\u6d41\u7a0b\u9700\u642d\u914d EarthNet2021 \u8cc7\u6599\u96c6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/Luo-Z13\/EO-WM\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>GitHub<\/strong><\/a> \u00b7 <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2606.27277\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Paper<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EO-WM \u4ee5\u7269\u7406\u5f15\u5c0e\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5f71\u7247\u64f4\u6563\u67b6\u69cb\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u885b\u661f\u89c0\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e26\u91dd\u5c0d\u6975\u7aef\u5929\u6c23\u4e0b\u690d\u88ab\u9000\u5316\u8207\u5929\u6c23\u97ff\u61c9\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u63d0\u51fa\u5168\u65b0\u57fa\u6e96\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":9745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[133,163,169,183,33,150,76,160,186,197],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-133","category-163","category-169","category-183","category-stablediffusion","category-150","category-76","category-160","category-186","category-framework"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9746\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infernews.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}